Tools · Entnahme

Wie lange reichen deine Ersparnisse?

Wenn du heute aufhörtest zu arbeiten und von deinen Ersparnissen lebtest, wie lange würden sie halten? Dies modelliert die Entnahme mit realen Renditen und Inflation — nicht nur eine Zahl durch eine andere geteilt.

Last updated: June 2026

Once you stop earning and start spending down savings, the question flips from "how much do I need" to "how long will this actually last" — and the honest answer depends on your withdrawal rate, your investment returns during the drawdown, and inflation eating into your purchasing power year after year, not just a flat division of balance by annual spending.

How it's calculated

A naive estimate (balance ÷ annual spending) assumes zero growth and zero inflation, which is unrealistic in either direction. A proper drawdown model runs a year-by-year simulation: each year, withdraw that year's inflation-adjusted spending amount, then grow the remaining balance by the expected real (after-inflation) return, repeating until the balance hits zero or a target horizon. This is the same mechanism behind the 4% rule research (see the FIRE number calculator) — testing whether a starting withdrawal rate survives a given number of years under realistic return and inflation assumptions.

Why it matters

The order returns occur in matters enormously during drawdown — this is sequence-of-returns risk. Two portfolios with identical average returns over 30 years can have wildly different outcomes if one suffers a market crash in year one or two of retirement (forcing you to sell more shares at depressed prices to fund the same spending) versus a crash in year 25, when the impact on remaining longevity is much smaller.

Common pitfalls

Ignoring inflation is the most common error — spending $50,000/year today doesn't stay $50,000/year for a 30-year retirement; at even modest inflation, the same purchasing power might require withdrawing considerably more in nominal dollars by year 20. Assuming a constant, non-volatile return (rather than a realistic sequence of good and bad years) similarly overstates how safe a given withdrawal rate really is.

Deine Ersparnisse reichen etwa

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Volle Ausstiegsbereitschaft → Verlängern
Eine vereinfachte Prognose — reale Märkte sind holprig und das Renditereihenfolge-Risiko ist real. Bildung, keine Finanzberatung.

Frequently asked questions

How long will my savings last?
It depends on your spending, any other income, and your return versus inflation. A naive estimate is savings ÷ monthly spending, but real drawdown lasts longer when your money keeps earning and shorter as inflation lifts costs — the calculator models both.
What is a safe withdrawal rate?
The 4% rule — withdraw 4% in year one, then adjust for inflation — has a high chance of lasting 30+ years. Shorter horizons support more; very early retirements often use 3.25–3.5%. See your FIRE number.
Does this account for inflation?
Yes. The model raises your spending each year by your inflation rate while growing the remaining balance by your expected return, so you get a realistic year count — not a naive savings ÷ spending figure.
What is sequence-of-returns risk?
The danger of poor returns early in drawdown, which can permanently shrink a portfolio even when average returns are fine. It's why a cash buffer and flexible spending matter most in the first few years after you stop working.